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Should You Buy or Hold Discover Financial Stock Before Q4 Earnings?
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Discover Financial Services is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2024 results on Jan. 22, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter’s earnings per share is pegged at $3.15, which indicates an improvement of more than one-fold from the prior-year quarter’s reported number.
Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See ZacksEarnings Calendar.
Fourth-quarter earnings estimates have witnessed six upward revisions and one downward revision over the past month, gaining 7.1%. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $4.4 billion, implying 4.7% growth from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Surprise History of DFS
Discover Financial’s bottom line beat the consensus estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark twice, the average surprise being 2.3%. This is depicted in the figure below:
Discover Financial Services Price and EPS Surprise
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Discover Financial this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.
Earnings ESP: Discover Financial has an Earnings ESP of +6.12% because the Most Accurate Estimate of $3.34 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.15. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Discover Financial's revenue growth in the fourth quarter is expected to have been supported by higher net interest income and non-interest income. Net interest income is likely to have benefited from growth in average receivables and an expanded net interest margin. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net interest income stands at $3.57 billion, reflecting a 2.9% year-over-year increase, while our estimate is $3.56 billion.
Average receivables are projected to have risen due to ongoing new account growth and reduced payment rates, with a lower mix of card promotional balances contributing positively to net interest margins. The consensus estimate for net interest margin is 11.26%, an improvement of 39 basis points from the prior year.
Non-interest income in the fourth quarter is anticipated to have gained from higher discount and interchange revenues and increased transaction processing revenues from the PULSE business. Although rising rewards costs may have slightly offset gains in discount and interchange revenues, the number of transactions processed on the PULSE network is expected to have grown significantly.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-interest income is pegged at $873 million, marking a 19.9% year-over-year increase, while our estimate stands at $809 million. Transactions processed on the PULSE network are estimated to have increased 18.2% compared to the previous year.
However, the company’s margins are likely to have faced pressure due to increased compensation costs and professional fees. Compensation expenses may have risen due to higher employee retention awards and wage rates, while professional fees are expected to have increased due to elevated recovery fees and investments in compliance and risk management. Overall, total operating costs are projected to have increased 5.8% year over year.
DFS’s Price Performance Comparison and Valuation
Discover Financial’s shares have gained 90.8% in the past year compared with the industry’s 51.8% growth. Peers like Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY - Free Report) and Synchrony Financial (SYF - Free Report) have gained 16.3% and 89.6%, respectively, during this time. DFS stock outperformed the S&P 500 Index, which grew 25.6%.
DFS One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company’s valuation looks somewhat stretched compared with the industry average. Currently, DFS is trading at 14.35X forward 12-month earnings, above its five-year median of 8.88X and the industry average of 9.71X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investor Considerations
Discover Financial offers attractive growth prospects driven by rising interest income, robust loan growth, and successful digital transformation initiatives that enhance efficiency and margins. Its strong market position, strategic partnerships, and innovative payment solutions further bolster its competitive edge. DFS also maintains an impressive profitability with a 22.1% return on equity, above the industry average of 10.9%. However, investors should weigh these strengths against challenges such as escalating operating expenses, a high debt burden, and increasing provisions for loan losses amid higher delinquency rates.
Final Words
Although DFS’s long-term outlook remains promising, it might not be the right time to buy just yet. Current investors can hold on to their stocks and benefit from their rising interest and non-interest income. However, prospective buyers may consider waiting for a more favorable entry point due to the stock's elevated valuation and keep an eye on its upcoming earnings.
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Should You Buy or Hold Discover Financial Stock Before Q4 Earnings?
Discover Financial Services is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2024 results on Jan. 22, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter’s earnings per share is pegged at $3.15, which indicates an improvement of more than one-fold from the prior-year quarter’s reported number.
Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Fourth-quarter earnings estimates have witnessed six upward revisions and one downward revision over the past month, gaining 7.1%. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $4.4 billion, implying 4.7% growth from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Surprise History of DFS
Discover Financial’s bottom line beat the consensus estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark twice, the average surprise being 2.3%. This is depicted in the figure below:
Discover Financial Services Price and EPS Surprise
Discover Financial Services price-eps-surprise | Discover Financial Services Quote
What Our Quantitative Model Unveils
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Discover Financial this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.
Earnings ESP: Discover Financial has an Earnings ESP of +6.12% because the Most Accurate Estimate of $3.34 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.15. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: DFS currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Q4 Factors to Note
Discover Financial's revenue growth in the fourth quarter is expected to have been supported by higher net interest income and non-interest income. Net interest income is likely to have benefited from growth in average receivables and an expanded net interest margin. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net interest income stands at $3.57 billion, reflecting a 2.9% year-over-year increase, while our estimate is $3.56 billion.
Average receivables are projected to have risen due to ongoing new account growth and reduced payment rates, with a lower mix of card promotional balances contributing positively to net interest margins. The consensus estimate for net interest margin is 11.26%, an improvement of 39 basis points from the prior year.
Non-interest income in the fourth quarter is anticipated to have gained from higher discount and interchange revenues and increased transaction processing revenues from the PULSE business. Although rising rewards costs may have slightly offset gains in discount and interchange revenues, the number of transactions processed on the PULSE network is expected to have grown significantly.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-interest income is pegged at $873 million, marking a 19.9% year-over-year increase, while our estimate stands at $809 million. Transactions processed on the PULSE network are estimated to have increased 18.2% compared to the previous year.
However, the company’s margins are likely to have faced pressure due to increased compensation costs and professional fees. Compensation expenses may have risen due to higher employee retention awards and wage rates, while professional fees are expected to have increased due to elevated recovery fees and investments in compliance and risk management. Overall, total operating costs are projected to have increased 5.8% year over year.
DFS’s Price Performance Comparison and Valuation
Discover Financial’s shares have gained 90.8% in the past year compared with the industry’s 51.8% growth. Peers like Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY - Free Report) and Synchrony Financial (SYF - Free Report) have gained 16.3% and 89.6%, respectively, during this time. DFS stock outperformed the S&P 500 Index, which grew 25.6%.
DFS One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company’s valuation looks somewhat stretched compared with the industry average. Currently, DFS is trading at 14.35X forward 12-month earnings, above its five-year median of 8.88X and the industry average of 9.71X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investor Considerations
Discover Financial offers attractive growth prospects driven by rising interest income, robust loan growth, and successful digital transformation initiatives that enhance efficiency and margins. Its strong market position, strategic partnerships, and innovative payment solutions further bolster its competitive edge. DFS also maintains an impressive profitability with a 22.1% return on equity, above the industry average of 10.9%. However, investors should weigh these strengths against challenges such as escalating operating expenses, a high debt burden, and increasing provisions for loan losses amid higher delinquency rates.
Final Words
Although DFS’s long-term outlook remains promising, it might not be the right time to buy just yet. Current investors can hold on to their stocks and benefit from their rising interest and non-interest income. However, prospective buyers may consider waiting for a more favorable entry point due to the stock's elevated valuation and keep an eye on its upcoming earnings.